SCIENTISTS at Kyoto University are studying whether activity in the ionosphere high above the Earth could subtly influence events deep within the planet’s crust.
Their theoretical model does not seek to predict earthquakes but explores how shifts in ionospheric charge levels triggered by intense solar activity, such as solar flares, might interact with already weakened rock formations.
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The framework suggests that cracked regions of the crust may contain water at extremely high temperatures and pressures, possibly in a supercritical state, with these fractured zones behaving electrically like capacitors.
It links such zones to the Earth’s surface and the lower ionosphere, forming a vast electrostatic system that connects ground and sky.
During periods of heightened solar activity, electron density in the ionosphere can increase sharply, potentially creating a negatively charged layer that generates strong electric fields within microscopic voids in fractured rock through capacitive coupling.
Calculations indicate that ionospheric disturbances linked to major solar flares, involving increases of several tens of TEC units in total electron content, could create electrostatic pressures of several megapascals within crustal spaces, comparable to tidal or gravitational stresses known to affect fault stability.
By combining plasma physics, atmospheric science and geophysics, the team hopes that closer monitoring of the ionosphere alongside underground measurements, including future high-resolution GNSS-based ionospheric tomography and detailed space weather data, will deepen understanding of how earthquakes begin and how seismic risk is assessed.
