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ALRIGHT, so the dates are out. Nomination on 15 Nov and polling on 29 Nov. 

It has been more than a week since the dissolution pf the State Legislative Assembly was announced. The waiting is finally over. So is the agony of waiting and all questions answered.

Looks like we have almost one whole month before Nomination, counting from the day the Election Commission announced it. SAPP President Yong Teck Lee noted that the time between the dissolution and Nomination is extraordinarily long.

The main players are GRS, PH, BN, and Warisan. Then you have KDM, PIS, Kenyalang, and others including Independents. The Independents include a group calling themselves Gelombang Hitam or Black Wave. And now to complicate things Star and SAPP have left GRS so you have to count them in as well.

It is very confusing as PH is in a relationship with both GRS and BN. It is just like a man with two wives, with PH as the husband in this case. How it will work out we just have to wait and see.

So its PH-GRS vs PH-BN vs Warisan vs. KDM vs Star/SAPP and others. It’s going to be a crowd on Nomination Day but as the saying goes the more the merrier. After all this is democracy and we are living in a free country. Indeed, this is the most complicated election and voters will be spoilt for choice. Of the above, GRS + PH is the ruling coalition. Star and SAPP were with them until recently.

Before GRS + PH, it was GRS + BN led by Umno until January 2023. Before the 2020 State election, it was Warisan + PH. PH was ‘divorced’ by Warisan after 2020. They ‘remarried’ GRS in 2023 and have been a part of the State Government since.

The failed coup stage by Umno with the help of Warisan almost unseated the GRS government led by Chief Minister Hajiji Noor. PH (PKR, DAP + Upko) saved GRS and Hajiji. DAP had 6 Assemblymen initially (later reduced to 4), PKR 2 and Upko 1. But that, together with the few Umno Assemblymen who did not join the coup, was good enough to let Hajiji carry on. Hajiji’s strength was further fortified when later a few Warisan Assemblymen also joined him. That was before the Anti-Hop law.

It is understandable that Hajiji invited DAP and PKR to join his Cabinet in early  2023. It is also understandable that he wanted the same arrangement to continue for this election. Unless, as I have said before, if PH wants a divorce then what to do lah.

Just as everything seem fine and Hajiji was all set to announce the dissolution, a couple of days before that Star announced that it was pulling out from the coalition and will contest the election on its own. Star led by Dr Jeffrey Kitingan was followed by SAPP led by Yong Teck Lee the next day.

So the membership of GRS has been reduced to 6 by the time Hajiji announced the dissolution. But life must go on and the other parties pledged to stay with GRS. The 6 are PBS, Usno, PCS, LDP, PHRS and Hajijis own PGRS.

The departure of Star and SAPP from GRS will make it an even more crowded field come Nomination Day. Whether Star or SAPP will have a secret pact with the other opposition parties especially Warisan, I don’t know. In politics anything can happen.

Even if any secret pact does not come out in the open, the word ‘secret’ speaks for itself. Of course everybody will deny. Otherwise it is no longer ‘secret’. I mention Warisan+Star+SAPP just as an example. It can be anybody. It can also be Warisan+ PKDM although both have denied it. Nobody will admit. The founder of PKDM is a former Warisan vice-president and Minister but is now sitting in jail in KL for corrupt practices.

But at this point of time, it is no point to talk about alliances because anything can happen after the results are known. Then you will know the real and final alliance which will form the government.

For example, if neither GRS + nor Warisan has the majority, what is there to stop them from trading horses with the others. In this situation, even a party with just a few seats will be the king maker. This was what happened in 2018 when Upko, already part of the newly-sworn-in BN government under Musa Aman, switched allegiance overnight which enabled Shafie Apdal to become Chief Minister instead. You dare to say that history will not repeat itself? 

I once served a politician and a historian who was very fond of saying “History will always repeat itself.” I am not necessarily talking about Upko which is with GRS now. Just an example.

For that matter, even Independents can make a difference. In 2020, three Independents who won threw their weight behind PN/Umno which increased their strength fro39 to 41 seats.

Together with 6 Nominated, that gave them 47, quite stable already. So the real alliance will only be known after election, as Sabah Umno chief Bung Mokhtar himself once said. 

But as of now, on paper GRS+PH as the ruling coalition has the advantage lah. A friend said he was not hoping for a two-thirds majority for GRS + PH. “I only want 37 seats which is the simple majority”.

This is Sabah, he pointed out, once the Chief Minister is sworn-in, even with a simple majority, the frogs for which Sabah is famous will start jumping especially during rainy season. History has shown that even anti-hop law will not stop people from jumping not just in Sabah but also in KL. They argue that by the time the court makes the final decision it’s election time again, making it academic. 

When I reminded him that there is already an anti-hopping law in place, he replied that the law only applies to individual Assemblyman and not the party. Meaning for example if Party X decides to join another coalition, it’s not against the law.

Coming back to PBS which has a MOU with Star. As I said I don’t know the legal implications after Star left GRS. On Wednesday, PBS acting president Datuk Dr Joachim Gunsalam finally broke his silence when he admitted that the road to KDM unity is not without obstacles, especially after Star decided to go solo despite the MOU.

“When we had that understanding, people were very excited because they said they would be some unity there. Our unity, especially in the KDM areas, appears fractured.”  The soft-spoken Joachim, said unity cannot be achieved if everyone insists on their own way.  

“There must be give and take.” Dr Joachim pointed out the importance of consistency and commitment in political struggle. “PBS and Star are the founding members of GRS. If suddenly we say, I want to leave now, what does it make of you? There is no integrity, no consistency. 

We have to be consistent on the struggle, he said, adding political commitments should not be abandoned when challenges arise.

The views expressed here are the views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of the Daily Express. If you have something to share, write to us at: Forum@dailyexpress.com.my