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Covid19 has dealt a devasting blow to the world. This pandemic has blown open some strengths and numerous weaknesses of all countries. Outstanding and least affected are some northern European countries, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. Surprisingly Singapore is the exception.Most glaring with poor management is USA, the most powerful country in the world with supposedly the best health care system. USA has recorded shortages in PPE, largest number of cases and sadly, biggest number of deaths. Fissures in the medical system are shocking. Trump’s leadership is 3rd world, he is all muddling through, resorting to blaming China. His tirades/threats in WHA supported by Australia, has fallen flat. Trump has refused to sign the WHA resolution calling for thorough investigation on Covid19. Australia is looking very stupid now.

No country has been spared, just a degree of how it has been badly affected. Looking forward, most countries are beginning to re-open, some gingerly, like UK, Malaysia. Americans are uncontrollable, USA has little or no co-ordination in reopening. The pandemic has morphed into bipartisan an personal politics. Weak in leadership, Trump has allowed each state to its own devices. Chances of a 2nd wave infection is real. In contrast, China’s reopening is text book, disciplined and orderly.

The pre-Covid19 normal is gone. Many things will be gone forever, like some employment in the service industry. The new normal, which I have written some weeks back will be the in thing, industries like healthcare and technologies that are suitable/sought after in new normal. Countries that can embrace/adapt will survive and prosper. Sorry for those which cannot.

Having done exceedingly well in the control of the pandemic, questions uppermost in Malaysians’ mind are—-[a] How will the Malaysian economy emerge from Covid19? [b] Will the federal government have the wherewithal to direct the economy in new normal? [c] Does Malaysia have politicians with right type of economic leadership for new normal?

Understanding of Malaysia’s pre Covid19 economy is a prerequisite to visualize how the Malaysian economy will perform post Covid19. Prior to onset of Covid19, Malaysian economy was already slipping, oil price was way below the budgeted price in the national budget, oil palm was down with India, because of unnecessary political offence created by Malaysia, not buying and tourism was beginning to down trend. SME was the only sector that has kept the economy afloat. Then Covid19 hit with a big hammer, made worse by political uncertainties in the switch of government. American let the west in their political/economic hegemony against China has created unprecedented adverse impacts on the global economy, Malaysia’s traditional sources of revenue, i.e. oil palm, oil and tourism will not recover any time soon. Likewise, SMEs are unlikely to resume its previous performance.

How soon can Malaysia recover? Here are indicative considerations—-[a] speed of recovery of our major trading partners. American recovery will be tardy, given that its Covid19 messy management so far, more than 30 million unemployed and erratic re-opening progress. A 2nd wave may well return to haunt Trump. Malaysia can rely more on China’s recovery which is already underway in an orderly fashion. More than 90pc of its factories are back in operation. As Malaysia’s largest source of tourists, China will become the corner stone for Malaysia’s tourism recovery. [b] Malaysia’s recovery will be stymied by weak economic leadership and political certainties. On-going excessive politicking is what will kill us. The inexperience economic management team will weigh heavily on Malaysia’s recovery effort. [c] Very worrisome is the federal leaders’ focus on political survival and lack of attention for post Covid19. So far, the federal government has no recovery Post Covid19 action plan. The private sector is groping in darkness. Singapore has produced a post Covid19 plan, so has China which is our major trading partner.

As a state, Sabah is being placed in a difficult position, very hampered by the absence of a federal post Covid19 action plan. It is impossible for Sabah to craft out our own plan. It is like Sabah trying to reach a destination without the benefit of a road map or compass. Urgent major issues for Sabah to address include—-[a] Broadening of the sources of revenue. Oil will be down for the long haul. Oil palm will take a while. Both are not within our control. Tourism has better prospects because Sabah has partial control. Also, our major markets, China and South Korea have not been overly affected.

Coming back to tackling the post Covid19 new normal, our economic prospects, indeed our very economic survival, will depend on—-[a] Sabahan leaders paying full focus on clearing economic development system blockages, especially the basic ones like infrastructures, poverty, food production and red tapes. [b] Private sector players’ willingness and adaptability to the new normal. [c] Government policies for the new normal. Very worrisome that there have been no or few thoughts on this very important aspect so far. We must start thinking about this now and to galvanise public involvement. The earlier we can do this the faster is the recovery.

These sectors that will do well in post Covid19 new normal—-[a] appropriate hi tech that can carter for human behaviour/requirements dictated by the new normal.

For example, people will hesitate to gather in big numbers, less likely to dine out, will not be keen to just pick up a bag and fly off for holidays. [b] These and any other human behaviour changes have direct effects on business. Another impactful development is work from home. Demand for office space will dim considerably. Suburb property value will rise. Direct internet shopping which was in vogue already will speed up considerably. How to use hi-tech to build our economic recovery and future prosperity is beyond me. But we must face this squarely. Get the best brains. [c] Health care! Covid19 has laid bare that life can be so fragile. Hygiene can be so important. [d] Food production. Had the pandemic hit hard on Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand, where will our rice come from? We must look into sufficiency in basic food stuff. More than this, Sabah can be a food production centre, especially high value crops as an effective avenue for our small farmers to get out of poverty. These points [I am sure there are many others] can open up numerous economic opportunities for Sabah. Key point is adapting hi tech to enhance production and marketing. Countries will tend to look inwards, globalization will decline, demand for job protection will rise in the world. In geopolitical terms, 2 blocks will emerge, one headed by USA and supported by like-minded western countries, the other by China/Russia with support from most Asian countries. Having witnessed Trump’s recent selfish negatives, their trust in USA and the west would have greatly reduced. Over the next 5 to 10 years, many economies, which have shrunk considerably by Covid19, will struggle to regain pre-Covid19 size. Global property prices may hoover at level lower than pre- Covid19.

Recovery of Sabah’s economy will not be V shaped. More like an extended U because—-[a] our sources of revenue will have a very slow uptake, be it oil, oil palm or tourism. [b] Sabah government has moderate financial resources to spur economic growth. Need to conserve as Covid19 will be around for a while. Limited fiscal options. [c] Direct federal help, if any, will not be great because the federal government, irrespective of which party in power, will focus resources on W Malaysia. In the light of aforementioned, I hope Sabahan politicians—-[a] Will gear their mind sets to new normal post Covid19. Otherwise, how can they lead Sabahans to overcome challenges of new normal? [b] Will stop “over promise and under deliver”. No longer will there be easy cash in the system. Every cent will count. [c] Will lead with highest degree of statesmanship to show how Sabahans can learn to adjust to the new normal. [d] Will start now the production of policies for the new normal of post Covid19. [e] Most importantly, get going with an economic restructure plan with focus on rejuvenation of the economy, creation of employment and business opportunities for Sabahans in new normal. The world economy has changed forever. For our economic survival and prosperity, let’s adapt to the new economic order in due haste. To succeed, I hope there are some very good leaders who can steer Sabah through these difficult/uncertain times towards prosperity.